In this lecture, we cover highlights of Chapter 6 (Dynamics of Growth and Diffusion) from Morecroft (2015). This chapter focuses on S-shaped growth in consumer markets (and innovation diffusion in general), and it uses the Bass diffusion model (with advertising) as a central dynamical hypothesis. We draw connections between the contagion in the Bass model to limiting processes in simple logistic growth models as well as the infection part of the SIR model. After showing variants of the Bass model for the cases of repeat purchases and durable goods, we move on to a scenario planning/strategic thinking example for the case of easyJet (a low-cost air carrier).
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