Lecture E5 - Introduction to Assignment E5 and Review of Related Concepts (2020-03-26)

This video is primarily intended to introduce Assignment E5, a system dynamics modeling assignment meant to be an example of what a model for a final project might look like. It also reviews topics such as lookup tables, shadow/ghost variables, and the use of time functions to create seasonal patterns within models. Concrete examples of these concepts are shown within Vensim and Insight Maker.

Lecture E4 - Morecroft (2015, Ch. 6), Dynamics of Growth and Diffusion (2020-03-24)

This lecture covers content from Chapter 6 of Morecroft (2016) on models for the dynamics of growth and diffusion, with a major focus on the Bass model (with advertising) and its conceptual relationship to the SIR model of infectious disease dynamics from the previous lecture. We start with a way to re-conceptualize a simple model of growth in a fishery toward something that looks more like an S-I model (the first "half" of an SIR model) and use that to motivate the Bass model. We discuss the modeling of advertising in the Bass model (related to spontaneous infections of a population) and different ways to expand the Bass model to be more specific to different problems of interest (such as durable goods, goods with repeat purchases, etc.). We close with a real-world example of a modified Bass model being used for scenario planning of a low-cost airline being introduced into an existing market.

Lecture E3 - Epidemic Modeling (SIR models and friends) and Scenario Planning with Simulation (2020-03-19)

In this lecture, we demonstrate how to use System Dynamics Modeling in the special case of modeling disease spread (epidemic dynamics). We motivate the construction and use of the SIR (susceptible-infectious-recovered) model for describing the spread of disease through a population, and then we describe a simple quarantine-planning scenario exploration that demonstrates that quarantines are only effective at minimizing disease spread if they are implemented very early and otherwise are primarily used for "flattening the curve." We then close with a very brief introduction to related compartmental models (SI, SIS, SIRS, SEIR, SEIRS, MSIR, etc.).

Lecture E2 - Simulating Fixed and Smoothing Delays in Vensim and Insight Maker (2020-03-17)

In this lecture, we define two different types of delays that are frequently used in simulation – fixed delays and smoothing (or averaging) delays. We also show how these delays can be implemented in Vensim and Insight Maker, and we cover the basics of using "step responses" to determine the "time constant" for first-order averaging delays. The lecture ends with a few more advanced delay concepts, such as higher-order smoothing delays.

Lecture E1 - Units, Sliders, and Lookup-Table Converters in Vensim and Insight Maker [PARTIAL LECTURE] (2020-03-05)

Unfortunately, due to a technical issue, a recording of the first half of this lecture was lost. Consequently, this recording skips through that content and starts with the second half of the content. If this recorded was complete, it would first cover how to configure Vensim and Insight Maker to use units in order to find formulas problems that result in incorrectly calculated units. It would then cover the use of Sliders to more quickly change and experiment with model parameters. It would then close on the use of lookup tables (or "converters" in Insight Maker) to define relationships graphically (as opposed to with formulas).

There are examples built into the lecture notes, and there are also additional examples given within Vensim and Insight Maker live during the lecture.

Fortunately, this lecture's content is covered by three independent tutorial videos (which also include advanced topics not covered in the main lecture). Students are encouraged to view those videos as well:

Video: Interacting with Vensim: Embedded Plots and Sliders

Video: Units in Vensim - Unit Synonyms and Checking Units

Video: Units in Insight Maker - Unit Synonyms, Conversions, and Checking