In this lecture, we motivate the use of "causal loop diagrams" as a bridge for building system dynamics models as well as analyzing models already built. We then introduce the fundamental structures within CLDs – the links (positive and negative, with and without delays) and the feedback loops (positive/reinforcing and negative/balancing/counteracting/regulating, and annotations denoting polarity as well as application-specific context). We do a few examples of drawing and analyzing simple CLD's and discuss rules and conventions for choosing variables to include in CLD's.
Archive of lectures given as part of SOS 212 (Systems, Dynamics, and Sustainability) at Arizona State University with instructor Theodore (Ted) Pavlic.
Tuesday, August 30, 2022
Thursday, August 25, 2022
Lecture A3 (2022-08-25): Chapter 1, The Appeal and Power of Strategic Modeling (Morecroft, 2015)
In this lecture, we discuss topics from Chapter 1 of Morecroft (2010) surrounding strategic modeling for analysis of various different scenarios that can emerge from a single system dynamics model. After some philosophical discussion of the continuous modeling spectrum from metaphorical to analog, we transition to more concrete examples with a simple harvested fisheries model. This gives us the opportunity to use the SDM to show how important functional response is and to use the example to motivate approaches for regulating a sustainable fishery.
Tuesday, August 23, 2022
Lecture A2 (2022-08-23): Introduction to Modeling
In this lecture, we introduce modeling broadly, including the different types of models (mental models, physical models, animal models, mathematical/analytical models, computational/numerical models, and simulation models) and how they are used. We focus on how modeling is as much about leaving the right things out as it is choosing the right things to keep in.
Thursday, August 18, 2022
Lecture A1 (2022-08-18): Course Introduction
Introduction to the course and the start of an introduction to quantitative simulation modeling.
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