Lecture E3 (2022-03-17): Epidemic Dynamics

In this lecture, we introduce the use of System Dynamics Modeling (particularly, stock-and-flow simulation models) to the analysis of the spread of infectious disease. We focus our investigation around the SIR   (Susceptible–Infectious–Recovered) model from epidemiology. We build up the SIR model from scratch (using a stock-and-flow model) and derive the basic reproduction number (R0) and discuss how quarantines are most practical for "flattening the curve" (the infection peak) and not totally stopping the spread of disease. We close with an introduction to other compartmental infectious disease models, such as SIS, SIRS, SEIR, SEIRS, MSEIR, and MSEIRS.