In this lecture, we apply system dynamics modeling to generate basic models of disease spread and scenario planning for intervention strategies in epidemiology and public health. In particular, we introduce the SIR model (and a few variations on it) and discuss the details of how it works and what the behavior over time curves mean. Topics related to current events, such as Ebola, COVID-19, and "flattening the curve", are discussed in relation to these models.
Archive of lectures given as part of SOS 212 (Systems, Dynamics, and Sustainability) at Arizona State University with instructor Theodore (Ted) Pavlic.
Thursday, March 11, 2021
Lecture E3 (2021-03-11): Epidemic Dynamics
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Popular Posts
-
In this lecture, we review the fundamentals of numerical simulation (and Euler's method) for a simple clonal bacteria population system ...
-
In this lecture, we dig more deeply into the definition of a model and the types of models. We focus on how anything can be used as a model ...
-
In this lecture, we introduce the concepts of stochastic modeling (the use of randomness to simplify the modeling process) and chaos (the ex...
-
In this lecture, we demonstrate how to draw and simulate stock-and-flow diagrams in Insight Maker (a web-based System Dynamics Modeling (SDM...
-
In this lecture, we start to introduce "systems archetypes" as representing more complex aggregations of loops that give rise to c...
-
In this lecture, we start by reviewing numerical integration methods (Euler's method) for approximating solutions to ordinary differenti...
-
In this lecture, we introduce numerical simulation of dynamical systems (coupled ordinary differential equations) within the context of stoc...
-
We start this lecture with very brief tutorials of building, executing, and analyzing stock-and-flow diagrams in both Vensim PLE (from Venta...
-
In this lecture, we motivate the use of "causal loop diagrams" as a bridge for building system dynamics models as well as analyzin...
No comments:
Post a Comment