Lecture E3 - Epidemic Modeling (SIR models and friends) and Scenario Planning with Simulation (2020-03-19)

In this lecture, we demonstrate how to use System Dynamics Modeling in the special case of modeling disease spread (epidemic dynamics). We motivate the construction and use of the SIR (susceptible-infectious-recovered) model for describing the spread of disease through a population, and then we describe a simple quarantine-planning scenario exploration that demonstrates that quarantines are only effective at minimizing disease spread if they are implemented very early and otherwise are primarily used for "flattening the curve." We then close with a very brief introduction to related compartmental models (SI, SIS, SIRS, SEIR, SEIRS, MSIR, etc.).