Lecture C1 (2022-09-08): Feedback Systems Thinking with CLDs

In this lecture, we start to introduce "systems archetypes" as representing more complex aggregations of loops that give rise to complex (but predictable) behaviors over time. We introduce S-shaped growth as a modification to reinforcing loops, balancing loops with delay as a modification to balancing loops, and growth with overshoot as a combination of the two. We then expose several of the other more complex archetypes as an introduction to the upcoming article on using systems archetypes in the next lecture. The lecture experience closes with groups working on building their own S-shaped growth examples and "shifting goals" examples.

Lecture B3 (2022-09-06): Chapter 2, Introduction to Feedback Systems Thinking (Morecroft, 2015)

In this lecture, we review Chapter 2 (Introduction to Feedback Systems Thinking) from Morecroft (2015). This chapter contrasts event-driven thinking with feedback systems thinking, which are two perspectives on analyzing possible interventions in the world. The former focuses on reacting to problems as they occur, with their causes (as well as the long-term intervention consequences) being outside of the decision-making model. The latter focuses on considering not only the intervention but the possible side effects related to other dynamic forces that are distal from the main problem of interest. A focal road congestion example is used throughout, with the chapter closing on an example about dueling showers ("accidental adversaries") and how they can be viewed as a model for dueling sub-units of a single company with limited capacity to operate both simultaneously.

Lecture B2 (2022-09-01): Drawing Causal Loop Diagrams in Vensim

In this lecture, we review causal loop diagram (CLD) fundamentals and go through a few examples of building and annotating CLDs. We also go over how to draw CLD's in the Vensim PLE system dynamics modeling tool.

Note that due to atypical technological limitations in the classroom at the time of the recording, the video quality is not optimal.

Lecture B1 (2022-08-30): Introduction to Causal Loop Diagrams

In this lecture, we motivate the use of "causal loop diagrams" as a bridge for building system dynamics models as well as analyzing models already built. We then introduce the fundamental structures within CLDs – the links (positive and negative, with and without delays) and the feedback loops (positive/reinforcing and negative/balancing/counteracting/regulating, and annotations denoting polarity as well as application-specific context). We do a few examples of drawing and analyzing simple CLD's and discuss rules and conventions for choosing variables to include in CLD's.

Lecture A3 (2022-08-25): Chapter 1, The Appeal and Power of Strategic Modeling (Morecroft, 2015)

In this lecture, we discuss topics from Chapter 1 of Morecroft (2010) surrounding strategic modeling for analysis of various different scenarios that can emerge from a single system dynamics model. After some philosophical discussion of the continuous modeling spectrum from metaphorical to analog, we transition to more concrete examples with a simple harvested fisheries model. This gives us the opportunity to use the SDM to show how important functional response is and to use the example to motivate approaches for regulating a sustainable fishery.

Lecture A2 (2022-08-23): Introduction to Modeling

In this lecture, we introduce modeling broadly, including the different types of models (mental models, physical models, animal models, mathematical/analytical models, computational/numerical models, and simulation models) and how they are used. We focus on how modeling is as much about leaving the right things out as it is choosing the right things to keep in.

Lecture A1 (2022-08-18): Course Introduction

Introduction to the course and the start of an introduction to quantitative simulation modeling.