In this lecture, we highlight and expand on topics covered in Chapter 8 of Morecroft (2015) related to public sector applications of strategic modeling. We first focus on Forrester's Urban Dynamics model, which provides a dynamic hypothesis explaining systemic (endogenous) reasons for growth and eventual stagnation (and even decline) of cities. We then transition to a a more complex fisheries model that includes endogenous investment (i.e., a model where investment decisions are generated by the model as opposed to specified by the person operating the model). This allows us to discuss a more specific definition of "tipping points" phenomena. Ultimately, many related discussions (bifurcation analysis and endogenizing variables) are left for auxiliary videos (for the sake of time).
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