In this lecture, we cover topics brought up by Morecroft (2015, Chapter 09) is his exploration of public sector applications of strategic modeling. We review the Forrester Urban Dynamics model and how it was synthesized from dynamic hypothesis (as a causal loop diagram) to multi-sector stock-and-flow diagram to a simulation that generated predictions that could be compared to real data (for both validation and scenario testing/planning). We then pivot back to the simple harvested fishery and use it to discuss the more general dynamical systems topic of "tipping points" and the visualization tool of "bifurcation diagrams" that help visualize things like hysteresis in systems (which are often associated with tipping points). The class ends after skipping over some content from the chapter about adding an endogenous investment model to the simple harvested fishery, and so that content is covered in a separate video to be (optionally) watched outside of class.
The separate lecture content on the endogenous investment model can be found at can be found at: https://youtu.be/uXdcHXq7eeQ
Lecture F2 video:
Extra module on fishery with endogenous investment model:
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